Human NFL analyst Dan Z. extended his lead over a ChatGPT model in a head-to-head betting contest, reaching a 9-6 record with a profit of 2.82 units after going 4-1 in Week 3. The AI model, identified as GPT-6 Pro, recorded its first winning week at 3-2 but remains 5-10 on the season, sitting at minus 5.61 units.
The contest pits Z. against the language model in a series of five weekly NFL bets, with both parties using the same odds captured at 3 p.m. ET on Saturday, Oct. 3. No selection is priced worse than -120, and each wager is sized to win one unit. Z. has finished ahead of the AI in units every week of the season so far.
In Week 3, the two disagreed on the Pittsburgh Steelers versus Cincinnati Bengals game. Z. bet on the Steelers to score, while the AI backed the Bengals to cover the spread. The Steelers won outright, settling the disagreement in Z.'s favor. Other Week 3 results included a 56-point combined total in the Rams-Broncos game, which resulted in a loss for both parties.
Heading into Week 4, Z. and the AI have identified two games where their picks diverge. In the Jaguars-Bengals matchup on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET, Z. is backing Cincinnati to cover the spread, citing his philosophy of fading recent results after Jacksonville's blowout win over New England. The AI prefers Jacksonville to win outright at +125, pointing to Cincinnati's defensive injuries and its recent loss to Pittsburgh.
In the Monday Night Football game between the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints, Z. is laying 1.5 points with New Orleans, arguing that the Falcons are overrated after their win over Green Bay and that the Saints' offense has been impressive. The AI is backing Atlanta to win outright at +115, favoring the Falcons' running game and extra rest while noting New Orleans is missing key defensive players.
The AI's five picks for Week 4 include Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants, Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals, Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers, and Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints. Z.'s five picks are Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals, Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings, and Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints.
Z. noted that he used GPT-6 Pro powered by GPT-6 Astra with thinking effort set to Max for the AI's analysis. The model was prompted to review all eligible spreads, totals, and moneylines and to use at least 10 sources per game for its fact-checking process.