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Texas Senate race tightens as Talarico polls ahead of Paxton with three months remaining

8/7/2026

A Fox News poll now shows Democrat James Talarico holding a slim lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, 51 percent to 48 percent.

That gap falls within the margin of error, meaning the poll's statistical uncertainty is wide enough that either candidate could actually be ahead.

Texas has not sent a Democrat to the Senate in decades, so even a competitive race here carries weight for which party controls the chamber.

What the polling actually shows Among extremely motivated and interested voters, Talarico's lead widened to 53 percent against 47 percent in the same Fox News survey.

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