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Kraken, the U.S.-based cryptocurrency exchange, has published analysis arguing that purchasing bitcoin ($BTC) below its 200-week moving average has historically produced median returns exceeding 100%.
The claim is a historical observation, not a forecast — but in a market that runs on narrative, the distinction rarely survives the retweet.
What the 200-Week Moving Average Actually Is A moving average is the mean closing price of an asset over a set look-back window, recalculated each period as older data drops off and newer data is added.
The 200-week version is a very long-horizon smoothing tool — roughly four years of price history — that filters out short-term noise to reveal a slow-moving baseline trend.
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