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Bitwise Analyst Warns of Up to 20% More Bitcoin Downside, Eyes $48,000 'Max Pain' Level

6/1/2026

A Bitwise analyst, Dragosch, is flagging up to 20% additional downside for bitcoin ($BTC), with $48,000 identified as the worst-case scenario — a level tied to where long-term holders would find themselves sitting exactly at break-even on their positions.

What 'Long-Term Holder Cost Basis' Actually Means On-chain analysis tracks the average price at which different cohorts of bitcoin holders acquired their coins.

Long-term holders are typically defined as wallets that have not moved their bitcoin for a sustained period — often more than six months or a year.

Their aggregate cost basis is the blended average acquisition price across that group. When the market price approaches that cost basis, these holders collectively reach break-even.

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