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Bitcoin ($BTC) just closed its worst June since 2022, and at least one analyst sees that as a warning sign rather than a clearing event.
The month ended above the asset's realized price — a metric representing the average cost basis of all coins in circulation — but below the 200-week moving average, a long-term trend line that has historically separated bull and bear market regimes.
That positioning, the analyst argued, signals the cycle's bear bottom is still ahead. What the Two Indicators Are Saying Realized price and the 200-week moving average function as opposite bookends in on-chain analysis.
Realized price is calculated by valuing each bitcoin at the price it last moved on-chain, then averaging across the entire supply.
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