The price of U.S. crude oil has moved above $100 a barrel. Supply disruption, the risk that conflict limits how much oil physically moves from where it is produced to where it is used, is already weighing on markets. The more pressing fear is that a prolonged war involving Iran could make that disruption worse.
Oil prices have stayed elevated as Middle East tensions escalate. The concern is concrete: a conflict that drags on could cut the amount of oil reaching global buyers, and prices move higher when supply shrinks. Worries about what comes next are keeping buyers cautious and sellers scarce.
Prolonged is the operative word. Short supply shocks are manageable. Reserves exist, and alternative shipping routes can absorb a temporary hit. A conflict measured in months rather than weeks is a different problem, and the $100 level reflects that traders are not ruling it out.