A deal over the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway at the mouth of the Persian Gulf and a critical passage for the world's seaborne oil trade, may be within reach. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said so directly, and President Donald Trump sharpened that message with a warning: the current round of negotiations with Iran is a "last chance" to end a five-month conflict.
The Hormuz question
The Strait of Hormuz has long sat at the center of disputes involving Tehran. Threats to restrict passage through it have historically rattled energy markets, because the waterway carries a significant portion of global seaborne oil exports. Any agreement that addresses it carries immediate weight for anyone tracking supply risk.
Bessent's statement that a deal is "in sight" is the more operationally specific signal of the two coming from Washington. It suggests negotiators have enough of a framework in place to see where an agreement might land, even if the final terms are not yet committed to paper.
Trump's ultimatum
The "last chance" framing is a deliberate escalation. Five months into the conflict, Trump is no longer characterizing the talks as open-ended. He is placing a ceiling on patience.
For Tehran, the implication is direct. Continued negotiations without a resolution will not, in Washington's current read, remain the available option. The statement does not specify what comes after a failed round. That ambiguity is part of the pressure.
Bessent's remarks followed Trump's warning, which matters for sequencing. The Treasury Secretary's signal that a deal is within reach came after the president raised the stakes. Whether that sequence was coordinated or coincidental, the combination reads as both a threat and an opening.
What is confirmed and what is not
The gap between "in sight" and "signed" is where the real question sits. Bessent's statement reflects the current state of talks, not finalized terms. Trump's warning is political positioning, not a treaty obligation.
The five-month duration of the conflict is the only concrete figure in the public record. Deal terms and any timeline for signing remain unannounced. What Bessent called "in sight" is still, by definition, unsigned.