Taiwanese analysts conclude that the recent state visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Washington D.C. resulted in no shift in U.S. policy toward the island. A panel of scholars, military veterans, and government officials at the Institute for National Policy Research in Taipei assessed the third meeting between Xi and U.S. President Donald Trump during his current term. The consensus among these experts is that while diplomatic interactions occurred, the fundamental stance of the United States remains stable.
Kuo Yu-jen, vice president of the Institute for National Policy Research and a professor at National Sun Yat-sen University, stated that both leaders achieved their respective objectives. Trump secured economic results from negotiations, while Xi returned to Beijing with the prestige of a high-profile reception. Kuo dismissed claims that Trump compromised Taiwan's interests as excessive speculation.
The core of the diplomatic tension centers on language regarding Taiwan's independence. Xi reportedly urged Trump to affirm that the United States opposes Taiwan independence. However, Trump maintained Washington's preferred phrasing, which states that the U.S. does not support Taiwan independence. This distinction was noted with relief by Taiwan government officials. François Wu, Taiwan's Deputy Foreign Minister, explained that Beijing seeks to frame Taiwan as a domestic Chinese issue to deter international intervention. Wu emphasized that Taiwan already possesses an elected president, government, territory, and currency, rendering a formal declaration of independence unnecessary.
The White House summary of the visit highlighted more favorable tariff treatment for $30 billion in goods in each direction, an AI incident communication channel, and U.S. concerns over rare earth supplies. The summary explicitly announced no change in Taiwan policy. Despite this, questions remain in Taipei about potential private agreements. Analysts caution that any such deals would likely only become apparent in coming months.
Dong Li-wen, executive director of the Foundation on Asia-Pacific Peace Studies, described the leaders' approach as delaying difficult decisions while waiting for circumstances to change. For Xi, this is viewed as a long-term strategy, whereas for Trump, it functions as a temporary tactic. The underlying competition between the two sides persists despite ongoing dialogue.
The status of Taiwan remains a subject of long-standing dispute. China claims the island as its territory, although the People's Republic of China has not governed it since 1949, when the Republic of China government relocated there after losing the civil war. The governing Democratic Progressive Party’s 1999 resolution described Taiwan as an independent sovereign state under its existing constitution. Current President William Lai Ching-te has reiterated that the Republic of China and the People's Republic of China are not subordinate to each other.
Future tests of U.S. policy will involve decisions on arms sales, visits by senior U.S. officials, and potential transit stops for Taiwan's president in the United States. China objects to all these actions. Ross Darrell Feingold, a political analyst at Tamkang University, noted that Taiwan's domestic political calendar could influence U.S. decisions. With local elections in November and presidential and legislative elections in January 2028, the U.S. must balance support for President Lai’s re-election against avoiding perceptions of blatant interference in Taiwan’s elections and managing inevitable anger from China.