Senate control, meaning which party holds the 51-seat majority that decides which bills reach a floor vote, is now a genuine coin flip ten weeks before Election Day. Cook Political Report, the nonpartisan elections tracker that rates individual races by competitiveness, declared the overall battle for the Senate a toss-up last week. That reversed the same outlet's earlier assessment that Democrats faced a "herculean" path to a majority.
Six seats on the board
Cook Political Report on Thursday moved the Texas and Iowa Senate races to toss-up status after rating both as lean Republican. That brought to six the number of GOP seats rated toss-up or lean Democratic. Party operatives in both parties say Democrats' clearest path to 51 seats runs through holding Michigan, then flipping North Carolina, Ohio, and Maine, with one additional state still needed.
Iowa is the sharpest example of how the map shifted. A Democrat hasn't won an Iowa presidential or Senate race since 2012. Soaring fertilizer and diesel costs along with Trump's tariffs have battered the farm state's economy, and Senate Majority PAC, the outside spending group affiliated with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, has committed $30 million to back state Rep. Josh Turek.
Texas has broken Democratic hearts in previous cycles. But Trump's support among Hispanic voters in the Rio Grande Valley has dropped, and Republicans spent close to $20 million in negative ads targeting their own nominee, Attorney General Ken Paxton, during the primary runoff. Democrat James Talarico has led in multiple early polls and dominated fundraising.
In Alaska, former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, who has won statewide twice, is running neck and neck with Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan in a ranked-choice system. A second candidate named Dan Sullivan also appears on the ballot. Senate Majority PAC has reserved $12 million in TV and digital advertising.
The longer shots draining Republican money
Kansas, Mississippi, and Nebraska are steeper climbs. Each is still costing Republicans time and money.
In Kansas, megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton is challenging Sen. Roger Marshall. Cook moved the race from solid Republican to likely Republican this month, and Senate Majority PAC's internal polling showed Marshall ahead by one point. Kansas hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate in nearly a century, though Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly has won statewide twice.
Mississippi Democrat Scott Colom outraised Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in the second quarter, pulling in $766,000. Schumer told Semafor that Hyde-Smith was "extremely weak."
In Nebraska, independent Dan Osborn is again pressuring Sen. Pete Ricketts. Since July 1, Ricketts' campaign has spent more than $5 million in ads, per AdImpact, while Osborn's campaign spent less than $500,000. Osborn's biggest outside supporter, Working Class Majority PAC, added $1.6 million in that span.
National Republican Senatorial Committee chair Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina entered the cycle warning senators in safe seats to expect no bailouts. The plan was to lock up red states early and put money into offense. Republicans are instead spending the summer defending territory they normally don't worry about.