Brent crude futures climbed 1.71% to $110.67 a barrel on Thursday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 1.42% to $98.53, driven by fears of escalating conflict in the Middle East. The price movement followed reports that the U.S. and Israeli militaries are preparing for renewed military action against Iran.
The New York Times reported, citing unnamed U.S. officials, that specific plans for strikes have been drawn up to begin after next month's midterm elections. The publication described the operation as "short but intensive." In response to the heightened tensions, the U.S. government ordered non-emergency employees and their families to depart Saudi Arabia.
State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott clarified on X that the evacuation order applies specifically to Saudi Arabia, citing increased attacks by Iran-aligned Houthis on civilian targets. This specification came after earlier reports suggested the U.S. had directed staff across the wider Gulf region to leave.
Despite the sharp rise in commodity costs, some market analysts believe the broader economic impact may be less severe than in previous decades. David Wagner, head of equity and portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors, noted that consumers have become less vulnerable to energy shocks. He observed that $100 oil today is distinct from $100 oil two or three decades ago, pointing out that current crude prices remain well below historical highs when adjusted for inflation.
Wagner cited U.S. government figures indicating that fuel costs represent a smaller share of household spending now than they did ten years ago, when gasoline took up about 5% of average disposable income. He stated that this figure is now about half of that previous level, suggesting households are better positioned to absorb elevated energy costs. Wagner described the current situation as manageable, stating, "I think we can hold that umbrella over our head ... from the rainstorm of oil."