House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) needs Latino voters to remain with Republicans as they did in 2024, but new polling indicates they are drifting back toward Democrats at levels not seen in years. This shift reflects growing dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump among Latino voters, a mood that has defined the president's second term. Democrats hope this trend helps them replicate the landslide victory they achieved in Trump's first midterm election in 2018.
According to new polling from Equis Research, Democrats currently hold their widest lead of the year against Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, standing at 57% to 31%. In battleground districts, Democrats lead 62% to 38% among likely Latino voters in two-way races. This margin is higher than the party's 2022 level of 57%. While this figure is well above the 49% of Latinos who voted Democratic in 2024, it remains below the 67% who backed Democrats in 2018, according to Equis, which is described as a leading authority on Latino voting behavior.
Republicans had believed that Trump's gains in 2024 signaled the start of a realignment with Latino voters. However, repeated polls this year suggest these voters have not established a permanent home in the GOP. In Florida, GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar has addressed Trump directly in a campaign ad regarding his immigration crackdown. The Equis survey, conducted from Sept. 23 to Oct. 2, provides fresh evidence of Trump's declining support within this demographic. His approval rating stands at 30%, compared with 65% disapproval. This creates a 35-point deficit and represents a new low in Equis surveys.
Economic concerns, including rising gas prices, are driving much of the dissatisfaction, particularly regarding the cost of living. Seventy-six percent of Latino voters disapprove of Trump's handling of the cost of living, which 52% identify as their top issue. Additionally, 54% trust Democrats more on the economy, compared with 33% who trust Republicans. This gives Democrats a 21-point advantage on economic issues, up from just 7 points in February.
Latino voters helped put Trump back in the White House, and the Equis survey is the latest indication they could help Democrats take back Congress. The firm surveyed 1,800 registered Hispanic or Latino voters across the country using phone calls and text-to-web methods. The results were adjusted to reflect the demographic makeup of registered Latino voters, accounting for factors such as state, gender, age, education, voting history, registration date, VCH score and recall of their 2024 vote.