Joby Aviation stock dropped 24% over the past month through Tuesday's close, a period when the S&P 500 rose 1%. The decline follows a shift in analyst sentiment centered on the company's ability to manufacture aircraft quickly enough to capture a significant share of the emerging air-taxi market.
Barclays initiated coverage of Joby Aviation with an Underweight rating on October 8, lowering its price target to $4 from $6. The bank argued that the air-taxi sector will not be a winner-take-all market and that Joby cannot build planes fast enough to secure a large portion of it. On the same day, Barclays started coverage of Archer Aviation with an Overweight rating. Joby shares fell 5.4% on October 9, and dropped another 5.5% on October 12 after Goldman Sachs trimmed its target price to $7 from $8. A sharp rise in Treasury yields following a hot inflation report on October 14 drove Joby down 6.9%, its worst single-day performance of the month.
Joby management has acknowledged similar production constraints. On an August 5 earnings call, CFO Rodrigo Brumana stated that the company's markets in the federal air-taxi pilot program in Texas, Florida, and New York could absorb the entire production output for quite some time. The production line remains small, with four aircraft added in the second quarter and at least two more due for delivery in the second half of the year.
Financially, Joby's premium flight business, Blade, generated $36.2 million of the company's $38.64 million in second-quarter revenue. While Joby ended 2025 with $1.41 billion in cash and short-term investments, that figure rose to $2.3 billion by June 30. However, quarterly cash burn has nearly doubled in a year to approximately $200 million. This burn rate, combined with a guided second-half burn, a $450 million deal with Resonant Sciences, and a $116.9 million trade-secret verdict that Joby is contesting, accounts for nearly $1 billion in near-term obligations. A $250 million investment from Toyota is expected around year-end.
The stock's slide has brought its valuation to 38x forward sales, a one-year low compared to a 94x average. Despite this discount, the multiple remains high relative to revenue that is largely derived from Blade operations. Wall Street consensus currently stands at a $10 price target, more than double Tuesday's closing price. Investors are watching third-quarter results, expected in early November, for signs that both second-half aircraft have been delivered and that cash burn remains near the $200 million level.