Worried optimism was the prevailing mood Monday at a Dallas Labor Day rally where a few hundred Democrats gathered at Lofty Spaces to assess Senate candidate James Talarico's chances against Republican Ken Paxton. A Senate race, in plain terms, is statewide: the winner represents all of Texas in Washington, not a single district. The energy in the room ran confident on the surface, but the nerves underneath told a different story.
Ellen, a retired nurse who sometimes attends protests in a Statue of Liberty costume, said she felt good about Talarico and did not believe Texans would back Paxton, whom she described as a criminal, cheat, and adulterer. When a reporter noted that Paxton, the current state attorney general, had already won statewide elections twice, she smiled and said: "That's the problem."
The Crockett question
Rep. Jasmine Crockett, a high-profile Black Texas Democrat who lost the Senate primary to Talarico, has so far declined to endorse him. That refusal is a live concern for Dallas Democrats, particularly around Black voter turnout. Joanna, a party activist in Ellen's age group, said she hoped Crockett would come around because, as she put it, "we need them voting." Several Black Democrats at the rally said they were confident Crockett's position would not be decisive and declined to criticize her for it.
The enthusiasm gap
The harder problem for Talarico may be one that polls struggle to capture: a simple lack of excitement compared to what Texas Democrats felt for Beto O'Rourke during his 2018 Senate race against Ted Cruz. O'Rourke lost that race narrowly, but he generated something Talarico has not. Richard, who is in his 30s and works in Dallas's service industry, said the energy for Beto was "everywhere, it was palpable," adding: "I was sure that Ted Cruz was going to lose. I don't feel that this time." Jaime, a liberal elementary school principal, acknowledged the gap directly: "Beto had style and rizz, Talarico is kind of a square." In 2018, the press coined the phrase "Beto-Mania." There is no equivalent phrase this cycle.
What's working against Talarico
Talarico had held a substantial fundraising lead, but that is narrowing. President Trump's PAC committed $10 million this week to support Paxton. Republican Governor Greg Abbott is running ads focused on oil production and culture issues that function, in effect, as advertising against Talarico.
On immigration, Dallas Democrats are not calling for abolishing ICE, the federal enforcement agency that carries out deportations and border operations. They want reform rather than abolition, and they are not eager to return to Biden's border approach. Several recalled the roughly 15,000 Haitians who gathered at the Del Rio border crossing during Biden's presidency.
One other shift was noticeable at the rally: Donald Trump's name came up rarely. After a decade in which he dominated nearly every Democratic discussion, that absence was jarring. The Republican Party's convention in Dallas opens this week.