Democratic strategists are raising alarms that James Talarico, the Texas Democratic Senate nominee, faces a structural vulnerability heading into November: a significant drop in enthusiasm among Black voters, particularly Black women, following his primary defeat of Black congresswoman Jasmine Crockett. Ashley Etienne, a former advisor to President Barack Obama and Vice President Kamala Harris, says that sentiment of "betrayal" among that voter group could prove decisive in a state where approximately 1.1 million registered Black voters currently sit out elections.
What the Enthusiasm Gap Means in Practice
Voter enthusiasm, as a political concept, measures not whether a constituency supports a candidate but whether supporters feel motivated enough to show up. In a solidly Republican state like Texas, that distinction matters more than in competitive ones: a Democrat cannot win by persuading Republican-leaning voters but must instead activate dormant Democratic-aligned ones.
Etienne, who also served as a senior advisor to former President Joe Biden and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and now runs the communications firm Etienne & Saint, described Black women as a "force multiplier" — a term meaning their engagement does not simply add votes but catalyzes broader Black community turnout. When enthusiasm among Black women is depressed, she argued, the ripple effect suppresses the wider bloc. She co-authored an opinion piece in the Houston Chronicle in which one Black female voter was quoted saying, "We as Black women give 92 percent of our vote to the Democratic Party, and we get nothing out of the deal."
The Crockett Factor
Talarico defeated Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Texas, for the Democratic nomination earlier this year. Etienne cited that outcome alongside Kamala Harris's 2024 presidential loss as the two events most responsible for the current mood among Black women in the party. Crockett has endorsed Talarico but has been notably absent from the campaign trail, and Dallas Jones, a Democratic strategist who served as the Texas political director for the 2020 Biden-Harris campaign, said pressure from Talarico's supporters for Crockett to stump for him is making matters worse. That pressure, Jones said, reads to Crockett's supporters as telling "this accomplished, decorated, Black female member of Congress what she ought to do."
Talarico's Separate Vulnerabilities
Talarico has drawn scrutiny for past statements, including saying he "hates Christianity," describing God as "nonbinary," and asserting that there are six sexes. Jones argued those remarks are unlikely to significantly damage Talarico with Black Texans who do turn out, given that the Republican alternative is state Attorney General Ken Paxton. "Black Texans that show up in November are not voting for Ken Paxton," Jones said. His concern, like Etienne's, is narrower: generating enough enthusiasm to bring those voters to the polls in the first place.
Talarico's campaign did not respond to a request for comment. Crockett's office and Paxton's campaign were also contacted but did not respond. Jones summarized the strategic reality plainly: "It's not a persuasion game, it's an enthusiasm game."