A bear market is a sustained price decline, typically 20 percent or more below a recent peak. Bitcoin ($BTC) appears to be moving through the final phase of one right now, according to Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision. Coutts said he is confident the asset could reach $250,000 over the next couple of years, even as he called the $1 million by 2030 target premature.
What Coutts actually said
Coutts said Bitcoin is nearing the late stages of its bear market. He placed his forward price target at $250,000, reachable over the next couple of years, and described himself as confident in that range. He offered no specific month or quarter as a destination, only the broader window of a couple of years.
On the $1 million by 2030 forecast, which has circulated widely in crypto commentary, his answer was direct: far too early to call. He gave no revised date for when such a target might become credible.
Why the "late stages" framing matters
Bear markets move in phases. The opening phase tends to bring the sharpest drops, as buyers who purchased near the peak sell and new buyers wait. The middle phase grinds along, with prices depressed and trading interest thin. The late stage is where selling pressure has largely exhausted itself, and the holders who remain tend to have longer time horizons and less urgency to exit.
Calling a cycle "late stage" shifts the conversation from how much further prices might fall to how long before they recover. It is a read on positioning, not a promise about timing. For anyone watching Bitcoin, that distinction matters because it changes the calculus of when to act.
The limits of the $250,000 call
Coutts put his name on $250,000 as a potential price for Bitcoin over the next couple of years. That figure is roughly a quarter of the $1 million call he declined to endorse for 2030. He gave no entry price, no floor estimate, and no milestone for what Bitcoin needs to hold to stay on that trajectory.
The $250,000 target is the number Coutts is prepared to defend. The rest he left alone.